Wednesday, July 12, 2006

Four-Way Race in November?

So it looks like the Connecticut GOPers might be facing an indy candidate from within their ranks in this November's Senate race. State Rep. Diana Urban (R) filed papers yesterday at the CT Secretary of State's office; she can start collecting signatures for an indy run immediately. Urban represents North Stonington, and says she is "a Republican in the Lincoln/Teddy Roosevelt ilk."

She is running as a peace candidate, and could not resist the opportunity to take a jab at Lamont as she stepped into the ring:

“All I can tell people is "examine the record" - I am not a one-issue person, and I have proven it.”

I see no way in which this hurts Lieberman, and it certainly doesn't help Lamont. Here are a few reasons why:
  1. As more candidates jump into the race, attention becomes more divided between Lieberman's challengers, and it becomes harder for any one of them to get too much oxygen. A four-way race would likely be framed as Lieberman versus three challengers, unless Lamont or Schlesinger takes the lead in polls early on.
  2. She is anti-war. And a Republican. She's an anti-war Republican. How many people do you know who fit that description that were ever going to vote for Lieberman? In November, these people would almost certainly have gone to Schlesinger in a 2-way race (better the pro-war Republican than the pro-war Democrat), or would have split themselves between Lamont and Schlesinger in a 3-way race. She siphons money and votes away from both Lamont and Schesinger, which helps Lieberman in turn.
  3. Some anti-war voters may decide that since there is going to be an anti-war candidate on the ballot in November anyway, there's no need for them to vote in the Dem primary now. I'm not saying this will apply to a large group of voters, but I have a feeling it's going to be very close on August 8, and even a few hundred anti-war voters deciding to stay home could make a difference.

Of course, the ballgame is already over if Lieberman wins the Dem primary. Now, Urban's entry gives Lieberman some insurance runs for November in case low turnout costs him the primary in August.


Anonymous Politicgeek Pro said...

Forgive my ignorance, but aren't you jumping past the first levels analysis here? (OK, it might be deliberate, but still) Like: Is it even likely that Urban will make the ballot?

Had Lamont entered the race as a petitioning candidate this week, I'm sure you would hacve waved it off as "not serious"?

7/12/2006 11:55 AM  
Blogger matt said...

In CT, only 7500 signatures are needed to get on the ballot. I have little doubt that a State Rep whose boyfriend is also in the State Legislature will have much trouble collecting that many signatures; she can probably get most of them from her district alone.

7/12/2006 12:10 PM  
Blogger Politicgeek Pro said...

If that is so, why did "everyone" talk about how difficult it would be for Ned Lamont to collect signatures back in April and May? Granted, he would have needed 15 000, and still it would not have been a problem. But still, that easy? Now it is four weeks to go, warm summer and supposedly hard to get people to the polls and everything [/snark].

It has been my impression that republicans are much more disiplined and much, much cooler toward spoiler runs from among their own in the general election than certain forces within the democratic party. So, until I see some evidence that getting on the ballot is easy, I reverse my right to doubt this is for real.

That being said, the really interesting question remains: Will Lieberman actually follow through with his, seemingly quite credible, threats to force a three-way race, should he be defeated in the primary.

If Lieberman does follow through with his threats, a republican might very well win this seat. If he doesn't, it won't matter whether there are two republicans on the ticket - it is after all a quite safe democratic seat in an ordinary, two-way race.

7/12/2006 12:50 PM  
Blogger SeedFreak said...

The more the merrier. I agree completely that the lady will draw attention away from Lamont as one of Lieberman's challengers. It does split the air time that Lamont gets--it waters down and dilutes their message time and space.

It's a challenge for Lamont's team but not for Joe's people.

7/12/2006 12:57 PM  
Blogger Janus said...

she is "a Republican in the Lincoln/Teddy Roosevelt ilk."

And she's running on an anti-war platform??

I guess she's never heard of the Rough Riders...or the Civil War for that matter.

7/12/2006 8:47 PM  
Blogger Aware said...

Janus, maybe you've never heard that Teddy R was the first environmental president. We have him to thank for our national parks and open space. He was also the original trust buster longer before the original Ma Bell was broken up. Lincoln, if you knew your history busted his butt not to go to war.

I checked Urban's bio out and she is impressive and so is her record for that matter.

Get the facts. I hate it when people wear blinders, jump to conclusions and don't have a clue what they are talking about.

7/14/2006 5:54 PM  

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