Tuesday, August 08, 2006

Too close to call

Lamont leads 53-47 with 45% of the vote counted. I'll make a call on the primary once it becomes clear whether Lamont's lead is widening or narrowing after 50% of votes are counted.

If you held an anvil over my head and told me to guess now, I'd say Lamont by 8.

UPDATE (9:41 PM): It's now 52-48 with 55% counted. I'll wait for one more round of votes to get reported before posting my "final" projection.

UPDATE (9:49 PM): It's now 51.6-48.4 with 64% counted. I'm going to hold my tongue on further predictions. But FYI - the Courant website seems to be furthest ahead of the curve on posting results.

UPDATE (9:56 PM): Holding at 51.6-48.4 Lamont with 72% now counted. I'm going to predict a 52-48 victory for Lamont, although that might narrow after the counting of absentee ballots.

UPDATE (11:06 PM): With more than 95% in, Lamont is leading by a margin of 10k votes (51.9-48.1%). Lieberman conceded defeat in the primary, but vowed to continue as an independent candidate through November.

Remember that result I said I couldn't stomach? This was it. Lieberman lost, but by a close enough margin that he thinks he could and should have won. I certainly think Lieberman should drop out now, but I can't imagine that he will after such a close result.

We'll know what the lay of the land is for November once we see the first post-primary poll. I think Lamont will get a 10 point bounce from the last Q-poll, making the first post-primary poll look something like: Lieberman 43%, Lamont 36%, Schlesinger 11%, and 10% undecided.

And that's my last commentary on the CT-Sen race. Check back here tomorrow for an announcement on the launching of the new Sundog/Cacambo blog (Cacambo will be my new alias; site name TBA).

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